The possibility of a \”W\” shaped recovery rears its head if the efforts to boost the economy are effective, but unsustainable once support such as cash-for-clunkers disappears. One scenario was that manufacturing picks up in 2009 to support incentive-driven demand, and the economy then slumps again in the first quarter of 2010 when the incentives and government boosting falls away to leave a consumer still reticent to spend.
- Factory Orders (July 2nd): Total factory orders rose +1.2% in May after +0.5% in April. Nondefence capital goods orders were signifi cantly stronger, rising +4.7%. Shipments, meanwhile, fell -0.9%, inventories
- Advance Retail Sales (July 14th): Total retail sales rose +0.6% following +0.5% in May. Excluding autos, sales rose +0.3% after +0.4%. However, if gasoline stations and autos are excluded, sales fell -0.2% after -0.1%, or -3.8% lower than a year ago. S&P500 +0.53%.
- Producer Price Index (July 14th): Producer prices increased +1.8% in June following +0.2%. Excluding food & energy prices increased +0.5% after -0.1%. The all-items PPI is now -4.6% lower than a year ago, while they are +3.3% higher than last year. This was the result of a +6.6% rise in energy costs and +1.1% in food prices.
- Leading Indicators (July 20th): The leaders continue to point to a modest recovery, rising +0.7%, the third consecutive monthly increase.
- Consumer Confidence (July 28th): Confidence took another step-back in July, falling from 49.3 to 46.6. The present situation assessment fell to 23.4 from 25.0, while the expectations component fell to 62.0 from 65.5. Inflationary expectations were also softer at 5.5%, down from 5.9%. S&P500 -0.26%.
- Beige Book (July 29th): \”Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity continued to be weak going into the summer, but most Districts indicated that the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to stabilize, albeit at a low level.\”
- Employment Cost Index (July 31st): Q2\’s ECI increased +0.4%, where +0.3% was expected. This was the result of a +0.3% increase in the benefi ts component and a +0.4% rise in wages & salaries. The ECI is now +1.8% higher than a year ago. While private sector wages and salaries are +1.8% higher annually.
From where I sit it looks like we had a long way to go in July, and we still do.
Learn all about the real estate cycle by reading http://hubpages.com/hub/The-Real-Estate-Cycle.
|
|