Moving averages (MAs) are a very popular tool used by currency traders. They are a lagging indicator of the price action and short and long term trends are easier to identify using moving averages.
Moving averages are calculated on the users specifications and can be formatted to different style of trading and time frames. For example, if you use a 90 time frame moving average, the prices of the last 90 times frames is added together and divided by 90.
A moving average can be calculated based on the opening, high, low or closing price. Most traders prefer to use the closing price because it is the most important. There are three types of moving averages. 1) Simple Moving Average. 2) Weighted Moving Average and 3) the exponential moving average.
The simple moving average is calculated by dividing the price in each time frame by the number of time frames. A weighted moving average gives more weight to the current prices as compared to the last few time frames. In an exponentially smoothed moving average, the chart is calculated gradually with less emphasis on the prices in the latter time frames.
Another important technical indicator is the Bollinger Bands. What are Bollinger Bands? These are bands plotted at a standard deviation above and below a moving average. The base of a band is moving average. The bands width is determined by volatility. The standard deviation is a measure of volatility so the bands are self adjusting. They widen during volatile markets and contract during less volatile periods. Bollinger bands bracket almost 90% of the market action.
Bollinger bands have the following characteristics. They are curves drawn in and around the price structure. This provides relative definitions of high and low. Knowing when the prices are high and low, a trader can make rational investment decisions by comparing price action with the action of other indicators.
Bollinger bands can be applied to mutual funds, forex trading, futures, indices etc. As volatility lessens, sharp price action tends to occur as the bands tighten. A continuation of current trend is strongly expected when the price moves outside the bands.
A move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band. When bottoms and tops made outside the bands are followed by bottoms and tops made inside the bands, reversal of the trend is highly likely.
When the bands are flat and narrow, this indicates that price volatility is lower than in previous time periods. The 10% price action outside the bands is most likely going to approximate areas where prices will return to within the bands.
When the bands begin to flare, this indicates increased volatility and start of a new strong directional or trend move. Wide bands are an indication of a very strong move.
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